Permalink of this method: https://www.universalforesight.com/uf-methods-bank/11215
| Nature of the method: | Qualitative Methods |
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Backcasting is an approach that involves working back from an imagined future, to establish what path might take us there from the present. One version of backcasting involves simulation modelling – indeed, this method is much employed with planning models.
More commonly, backcasting is used in aspirational scenario workshops. Here, it involves the creation of a desired future and afterwards imagining (generally via brainstorming sessions) all necessary events, actions and milestones that must happen in order for that future to be achieved. It is considered by many as a less elaborated version of Roadmapping (explained below) which also requires the preparation of a timeline. The timeline usually includes key events and measurable goals that need to be reached. There may be some quantification (using probabilities) of the likelihood and feasibility of each event. A major objective of the technique is to identify possible policy and strategies required to approach a desired future (see Dreborg, 1996; Hojer and Mattsson, 2000).