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Delphi Technique

Nature of the method: Semi-Quantitative

Delphi is a well-established technique that involves repeated polling of the same individuals, feeding back (sometimes) anonymised responses from earlier rounds of polling, with the idea that this will allow for better judgements to be made without undue influence from forceful or high-status advocates. The technique was developed so as to circumvent “follow the leader” tendencies of face-to-face exchanges, and other problems such as the reluctance to discard previously stated opinions. Ideally Delphi will feed back explanations for people’s initial decisions, so that participants can assess the strength of the case for “deviant” viewpoints; often this is only done to a limited extent, if at all, because of the effort required to produce, process and feed back this information.

Delphi surveys are usually conducted in two, and less commonly three, rounds. Delphis are most often employed to elicit views as to whether and when particular developments may occur, but the technique can be used for any sort of opinion or information – such as the desirability of specific outcomes, impacts of policies or technologies, etc.Likewise, Delphi is frequently used with a focus on the dominant views that emerge, but the technique may be oriented more to delineating different points of view. Delphi surveys are often carried out online, and findings are used to prepare recommendations, action plans, roadmaps, etc.

Knowledge sources

Creativity

Expertise

Evidence

Interaction

Contribution to the SMART foresight process

Scoping (Designing and planning)

Mobilisation (Engaging stakeholders)

Anticipation (Exploring posible futures)

Recommendation (Formulating sound advice)

Transformation (Enabling action and decision-making)

CRITICAL ISSUES RELATED TO THIS METHOD:

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