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Essays/Scenario Writing

Nature of the method: Qualitative Methods

Essays/Scenario Writing involves the production of accounts of “plausible” future events based on a creative combination of data, facts and hypotheses.

This activity requires insightful and intuitive thinking about possible futures, normally based on a systematic analysis of the present. It is often used in genius forecasting, but can also be implemented in systematic approaches, in desk or group work. Typically this will involve requesting the authors to examine each scenario in terms of a set of common features, e.g. what the scenario implies about business models, politics and environmental affairs. Essays may focus on one or a small set of images of the future, with a detailed description of some major trends promoting the evolution of the scenario, and/or of stakeholders’ roles in helping to bring these about. They are usually fed by the outcomes of brainstorming sessions, SWOT exercises, Delphi, expert panels and many other activities; they may be prepared in or immediately after workshops, for example. Their main objectives are (a) to describe future situations resulting from the implementation of particular decisions, strategies or policies and (b) to make recommendations on those futures.

Knowledge sources

Creativity

Expertise

Evidence

Interaction

Contribution to the SMART foresight process

Scoping (Designing and planning)

Mobilisation (Engaging stakeholders)

Anticipation (Exploring posible futures)

Recommendation (Formulating sound advice)

Transformation (Enabling action and decision-making)

CRITICAL ISSUES RELATED TO THIS METHOD:

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