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Genius Forecasting

Nature of the method: Qualitative Methods

Genius Forecasting is an activity carried out by respected individuals that requires both expertise and creativity in relatively similar proportions.

It involves the preparation of forecasts based on insights of a brilliant specialist, scientist or authority in a given area. There is inevitably a danger of one-sided views and special interest pleading – for example “scientific advertising”, when people engaged in cutting-edge activities use media attention or political influence to claim that a certain technology is key or vital. However, it is undeniable that some individuals have particular insights and provocative ways of approaching topics, stimulating fresh thinking and ensuring that important perspectives and possibilities are being taken into account.

Knowledge sources

Creativity

Expertise

Evidence

Interaction

Contribution to the SMART foresight process

Scoping (Designing and planning)

Mobilisation (Engaging stakeholders)

Anticipation (Exploring posible futures)

Recommendation (Formulating sound advice)

Transformation (Enabling action and decision-making)

CRITICAL ISSUES RELATED TO THIS METHOD:

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