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Modelling

Nature of the method: Quantitative Methods

Modelling generally refers to the use of computer-based models that relate together the values achieved by particular variables. Very simple models may be based on statistical relations between two or three variables only – even extrapolation is an elementary form of modelling (in which time is one variable).

More complex models may use hundreds, thousands, or even more variables; econometric models are routinely used in economic policy-making, for example, and are “calibrated” from economic statistics and statistical analyses of their interrelations. Models are frequently used in other sorts of planning activity, for example to estimate the effect of alternative land use or transport strategies. Many

Knowledge sources

Creativity

Expertise

Evidence

Interaction

Contribution to the SMART foresight process

Scoping (Designing and planning)

Mobilisation (Engaging stakeholders)

Anticipation (Exploring posible futures)

Recommendation (Formulating sound advice)

Transformation (Enabling action and decision-making)

CRITICAL ISSUES RELATED TO THIS METHOD:

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