Permalink of this method: https://www.universalforesight.com/uf-methods-bank/11258
| Nature of the method: | Qualitative Methods |
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Scenarios/Scenario Workshops refers to a wide range of approaches
involving the construction and use of scenarios – more or less systematic and
internally consistent visions of plausible future states of affairs.
Generally scenarios involve several features of the object of study, not just one or two
parameters. They may be produced by means of deskwork, workshops or the
use of tools such as computer modelling. Scenario workshops commonly
involve working groups dedicated to the preparation of alternative futures.
These groups generally focus on a particular subject or problem where
resulting scenarios indicate (a) the views of experts in a particular field or (b)
the views of a group of people carefully selected to represent a particular
community, organisation or region. There are numerous ways of articulating
and elaborating such scenarios – for example, using a 2*2 matrix crosscutting
key parameters; using “archetypal” scenarios such as “better than
expected”, “worse than expected”, “different to expected”; selecting scenarios
exemplifying key trends and drivers identified through STEEPV or similar
approaches, and so on. But one can also find workshops aiming at the
creation of an aspirational or “success scenario” (see Miles, 2005), for
example elaborating a vision of a desirable and feasible aspirational future.
Such a scenario requires the identification of specific objectives, targets and
actions towards its achievement.