Permalink of this method: https://www.universalforesight.com/uf-methods-bank/11273

Wild Cards Analysis

Nature of the method: Qualitative Methods

Wild Cards are high impact and low perceived probability events (e.g. unexpected systems failures or sudden transformations resulting from breakthrough or incremental innovations).

Serendipity or the faculty of making scientific discoveries by accident is another important source of wild cards, which can be included into the unexpected surprises of human actions category.

Knowledge sources

Creativity

Expertise

Evidence

Interaction

Contribution to the SMART foresight process

Scoping (Designing and planning)

Mobilisation (Engaging stakeholders)

Anticipation (Exploring posible futures)

Recommendation (Formulating sound advice)

Transformation (Enabling action and decision-making)

CRITICAL ISSUES RELATED TO THIS METHOD:

+ Add a critical issue